CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's trend is similar to the 2022 bear market pattern, market sentiment turns to "extreme pessimism"

According to The Block, Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, stated that Bitcoin's trend is mirroring the 2022 bear market pattern as market sentiment turns "extremely pessimistic." Technically, Bitcoin's recent rebound encountered resistance at the 200-day moving average near $82,400, consistent with March 2022, when Bitcoin touched this average after a 43% rebound from its low and resumed its downward trend. Moreno pointed out that in a bear market, the 200-day moving average acts as a dividing line between rebound areas and trend continuation, and failure to break above it is the strongest technical confirmation of a healthy bear market structure. On the demand and funding fronts, Bitcoin demand has turned negative, with speculative demand in perpetual futures slowing sharply after breaking through $82,000, and spot demand accelerating its contraction. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned into net sellers. In terms of sentiment indicators, CryptoQuant's Bull Market Score Index has fallen from 40 to 20, entering the "extremely bearish" zone, consistent with readings from February to March 2026 when Bitcoin fell to $60,000-$66,000. Regarding key support levels, Moreno believes that if the pullback continues, around $70,000 (trader on-chain realized price) is an important threshold, where unrealized profits will become zero or negative, thereby reducing selling pressure and historically helping demand return to stable prices.