Foreign media: Kalshi's combined betting has caused ordinary users to net a loss of $294 million this year

July 28th, according to Bloomberg, the multi-leg combo bets on the prediction market Kalshi have resulted in an accumulated net loss of approximately $294 million for retail users this year, excluding fees. Bloomberg analysis indicates that these combo bets accounted for 36% of Kalshi's contract trading volume this month. Retail users typically execute trades by taking orders at the displayed prices, while professional market makers and algorithmic traders profit from automated quotes on the other side. Data shows that the average implied probability of winning for Kalshi combo bets in 2026 is only about 9%, compared to 43% in the regular non-combo market. Combo bets involve the correlation of multiple events, making it difficult for retail users to accurately assess the odds. Kalshi also allows users to combine bets on Bitcoin prices with sports outcomes.