Analysis: Probability of Fed Rate Hike by Year-End Exceeds 30%, BofA Believes Three Major Conditions Still Need to Be Met

March 21st news, according to a report by Cailian Press, Wall Street is concerned that the escalation of Middle East conflicts could lead to a surge in international oil prices, potentially reigniting inflation in the United States and prompting the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts or even consider rate hikes. Bank of America stated that "whether the Fed will raise interest rates this year" has become a frequent question from their clients recently. The bank's response is that while this possibility cannot be entirely ruled out, the Federal Reserve would need to meet certain specific conditions to raise rates, including: a stable labor market, further exacerbation of inflation, and Jerome Powell remaining as Fed Chair. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, Wall Street traders now anticipate a greater than 30% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by the end of this year, with only a 6.1% chance of a rate cut.