Binance Research: Four On-Chain Signals Indicate Tightening Bitcoin Supply and Exhausted Selling Pressure

Binance Research's weekly chart analysis indicates that four on-chain signals converge on a single conclusion: supply is tightening, and selling pressure has been exhausted. 1. Long-Term Dormancy: Nearly 60% of BTC supply has remained unmoved for over a year, significantly higher than the 27% observed in 2012. The dormancy rate peaked at 69.5% when spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in January 2024 and has remained near historical highs since. 2. SLRV Indicator: The Short-Term Holder to Long-Term Holder Value Ratio (SLRV) is deeply entrenched in historical bottoming territory, signaling a cold market sentiment. Long-term holders dominate supply, and short-term speculators have largely exited. Historically, every cycle bottom has been accompanied by this ratio entering its current zone. 3. Exchange Balances: Exchange balances have decreased to 15.0% from a peak of 17.6% during the pandemic. Approximately 500,000 BTC have permanently left exchanges, pushing seller supply to a 6-year low. 4. STH MVRV Indicator: Since November 2024, the BTC Short-Term Holder MVRV has largely remained below 1.0, gradually exhausting seller pressure. The ratio has now recovered to 1.0, indicating that short-term holders are beginning to accumulate unrealized gains again. As profit accumulation is still in its early stages, a new wave of selling pressure is unlikely to emerge immediately. Historically, this pattern often precedes sustained recovery.