Institution: The Federal Reserve is unlikely to tighten policy further in the short term, and even if implemented, it would be after 2027.

TsLombard stated that facing oil price shocks, the extent of global central bank policy tightening may be quite limited, and aggressive tightening cycles are unlikely. In the United States, the Federal Reserve is less likely to implement policy tightening in the short term, and if it does, it will almost certainly be delayed until 2027. In Europe, the energy shock is already dragging down economic activity. The UK labor market has appeared unstable for some time, and hiring sentiment in Europe is becoming increasingly weak. The tightening by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England this year will be less than market expectations, a possibility that is currently underestimated.