Next Week Macro Outlook: US and European PMI Data to Debut, Global Interest Rate Market "Hawkish Repricing" Intensifies

On March 21st, according to Jinshi, over the past week, as the US-Iran situation rapidly escalated, impacting energy production facilities in the Gulf region, driving energy prices to soar and intensifying inflation concerns, the global interest rate market's "hawkish repricing" has become increasingly pronounced. With the sharp rise in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes coupled with liquidity tightness, the safe-haven logic for precious metals has given way to the siphon effect of the US dollar. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time): * Tuesday 7:30, Japan February Core CPI Year-on-Year; * Tuesday 16:15, 16:30, 17:00, 17:30, France, Germany, Eurozone, UK March Manufacturing/Services PMI Preliminary; * Tuesday 21:45, US March S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI Preliminary; * Wednesday 15:00, UK February CPI Month-on-Month, UK February Retail Price Index Month-on-Month; * Wednesday 17:00, Germany March IFO Business Climate Index; * Wednesday 20:30, US Q4 Current Account, US February Import Price Index Month-on-Month; * Wednesday 22:30, US Crude Oil Stocks in the Week Ending March 20; * Thursday 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the Week Ending March 21; * Thursday TBD, G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting, until March 27; * Friday 7:00, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson delivers a speech; * Friday 22:00, US March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Final, One-Year Inflation Expectation Final; * Friday 23:30, 2027 FOMC Voting Member and San Francisco Fed President Daly delivers opening remarks at a conference on macroeconomics and monetary policy. The European and US March manufacturing and services PMI data to be released on Tuesday will provide an initial indication of business activity during the Iran conflict and the impact of soaring energy prices. As the US is a net energy exporter, its economy is considered more resilient than many European countries. Under the shadow of soaring oil prices, the balance of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions appears to be tipping back towards inflation. The UK's February CPI data, due on Wednesday, will be the highlight of the UK economic data for the coming week. The next test for the Japanese yen may be the February national CPI data scheduled for release on Tuesday. Furthermore, driven by soaring energy prices and the shift to a wait-and-see approach by global central banks, rapidly rising US Treasury yields are gradually becoming a risk factor for the stock market.