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Analysis: Binance retail BTC inflows are about twice that of whales, and whale inflows have decreased by 44.3% from recent highs.
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PANews July 28th news, CryptoQuant analysis points out that Binance Bitcoin inflow data shows significant divergence. The total inflow from large whales on the 30th was $3.9 billion, a 44.3% decrease from the peak of approximately $7 billion on June 12th; retail inflow was $7.8 billion, a mere 22% decrease from approximately $10 billion on June 5th. Retail inflow is currently about twice that of large whales, with a gap of $3.9 billion.
The analysis points out that this divergence coincides with the eve of the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on July 28th-29th. Federal funds futures are currently pricing in about a 36% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike, with the more likely scenario being maintaining the target range at 3.50-3.75%. From a Bitcoin perspective, an unexpected rate hike could support the dollar and Treasury yields, increasing volatility in risk assets; if a pause in rate hikes is accompanied by dovish guidance, it could partially alleviate macroeconomic pressure. Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision will be a key variable in testing whether this divergence continues or begins to converge.